Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era

Abstract. Although the global-mean sea level (GMSL) rose over twentieth century with a positive contribution from thermosteric and barystatic (ice sheets glaciers) sources, driving processes of GMSL changes during pre-industrial Common Era (PCE; 1–1850 CE) are largely unknown. Here, contributions glacier ice sheet mass variations ocean thermal expansion to in (1–2000 estimated based on simulations different physical models. (GMTSL) is mainly associated temperature upper 700 m (86 % reconstruction 74 ± 8 model), GMTSL PCE equally controlled by below m. The does not vary more than ±2 cm PCE. Antarctic Greenland tend cancel each other out owing differing response two atmospheric conditions. uncertainties sea-level land-ice large, especially first millennium. Despite underestimating model GMSL, there general agreement between proxy-based reconstructions CE. remain large millennium, point glaciers as dominant source